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TPS W vs HJK W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

TPS W
TPS W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
HJK W
HJK W
9/26/2020Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 14Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

TPS W11%
×Draw19%
HJK W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPS W
0.67
HJK W
2.11

HJK W creates 215% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 73 away

creates per match

TPS W
0.42
HJK W
2.18

allows per match

TPS W
2.04
HJK W
0.92

finishing

TPS W+0.00on par
HJK W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS W ↓

HJK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

TPS W or draw
29%
TPS W or HJK W
81%
Draw or HJK W
89%

Winning margin

TPS W wins by 2+
3%
HJK W wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

TPS W 1+ goals
49%
TPS W 2+ goals
15%
TPS W 3+ goals
3%
HJK W 1+ goals
88%
HJK W 2+ goals
62%
HJK W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

TPS W (draw refunded)
13%
HJK W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS W at home — creates 0.42, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

HJK W away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS W attack 0.42 + HJK W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.67

HJK W attack 2.18 + TPS W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

TPS W scores more
11%
level
19%
HJK W scores more
71%

HJK W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "HJK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: TPS W 0–2 HJK W

HJK W beat TPS W 2-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.