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TPS O35 vs Wolves — Suomen Cup 2018

TPS O35
TPS O35
FT
5 – 1
Wolves
Wolves
3/30/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TPS O3561%
×Draw16%
Wolves23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPS O35
3.39
Wolves
2.11

TPS O35 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

TPS O35
4.11
Wolves
2.33

allows per match

TPS O35
1.89
Wolves
2.67

finishing

TPS O35+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS O35 ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

TPS O35 or draw
77%
TPS O35 or Wolves
84%
Draw or Wolves
39%

Winning margin

TPS O35 wins by 2+
42%
Wolves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TPS O35 1+ goals
96%
TPS O35 2+ goals
84%
TPS O35 3+ goals
64%
Wolves 1+ goals
88%
Wolves 2+ goals
62%
Wolves 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

TPS O35 (draw refunded)
73%
Wolves (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS O35 at home — creates 4.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Wolves away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS O35 attack 4.11 + Wolves defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.39

Wolves attack 2.33 + TPS O35 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

TPS O35 scores more
61%
level
16%
Wolves scores more
23%

TPS O35 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "TPS O35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPS O35 5 – 1 Wolves

TPS O35 beat Wolves 5-1 in Suomen Cup on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.