TPS O35 2–0 SalPa II: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

TPS O35

2 – 0

SalPa II

3/12/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TPS O3551%

×Draw18%

SalPa II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TPS O35Expected goals in this matchSalPa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

2.19

TPS O35

2.81

SalPa II

2.19

TPS O35 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

4.11

creates per match

2.50

1.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

TPS O35

4.11

SalPa II

2.50

allows per match

TPS O35

1.89

SalPa II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TPS O35+0.00on par

SalPa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS O35 ↓

SalPa II →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

TPS O35 or draw

69%

TPS O35 or SalPa II

82%

Draw or SalPa II

49%

Winning margin

TPS O35 wins by 2+

32%

SalPa II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

TPS O35 1+ goals

94%

TPS O35 2+ goals

76%

TPS O35 3+ goals

52%

SalPa II 1+ goals

89%

SalPa II 2+ goals

64%

SalPa II 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

TPS O35 (draw refunded)

62%

SalPa II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TPS O35 at home — creates 4.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

SalPa II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TPS O35 attack 4.11 + SalPa II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.81

SalPa II attack 2.50 + TPS O35 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

TPS O35 scores more

51%

level

18%

SalPa II scores more

31%

TPS O35 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TPS O35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff