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TPS O35 vs MaPS — Suomen Cup 2018

TPS O35
TPS O35
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
MaPS
MaPS
4/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TPS O3524%
×Draw16%
MaPS60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPS O35
2.22
MaPS
3.44

MaPS creates 55% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

TPS O35
4.11
MaPS
5.00

allows per match

TPS O35
1.89
MaPS
0.33

finishing

TPS O35+0.00on par
MaPS+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS O35 ↓

MaPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

TPS O35 or draw
40%
TPS O35 or MaPS
84%
Draw or MaPS
76%

Winning margin

TPS O35 wins by 2+
12%
MaPS wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

TPS O35 1+ goals
89%
TPS O35 2+ goals
65%
TPS O35 3+ goals
38%
MaPS 1+ goals
97%
MaPS 2+ goals
85%
MaPS 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

TPS O35 (draw refunded)
29%
MaPS (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS O35 at home — creates 4.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

MaPS away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS O35 attack 4.11 + MaPS defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 2.22

MaPS attack 5.00 + TPS O35 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TPS O35 scores more
24%
level
16%
MaPS scores more
60%

MaPS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "MaPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPS O35 1 – 1 MaPS

TPS O35 and MaPS drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.