TPS O35 2–3 Ilves II: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

TPS O35

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Ilves II

4/16/2024

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundKupittaan Kentät

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TPS O3560%

×Draw16%

Ilves II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TPS O35Expected goals in this matchIlves II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.36

2.15

TPS O35

3.36

Ilves II

2.15

TPS O35 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

4.11

creates per match

2.40

1.89

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

TPS O35

4.11

Ilves II

2.40

allows per match

TPS O35

1.89

Ilves II

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TPS O35+0.00on par

Ilves II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS O35 ↓

Ilves II →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–42%

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

TPS O35 or draw

76%

TPS O35 or Ilves II

84%

Draw or Ilves II

40%

Winning margin

TPS O35 wins by 2+

41%

Ilves II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

TPS O35 1+ goals

96%

TPS O35 2+ goals

84%

TPS O35 3+ goals

63%

Ilves II 1+ goals

88%

Ilves II 2+ goals

63%

Ilves II 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

TPS O35 (draw refunded)

72%

Ilves II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TPS O35 at home — creates 4.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Ilves II away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TPS O35 attack 4.11 + Ilves II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.36

Ilves II attack 2.40 + TPS O35 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

TPS O35 scores more

60%

level

16%

Ilves II scores more

24%

TPS O35 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TPS O35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff