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TPS O35 vs ÅCF — Suomen Cup 2018

TPS O35
TPS O35
FT
2 – 0
ÅCF
ÅCF
3/8/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TPS O3530%
×Draw17%
ÅCF53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPS O35
2.43
ÅCF
3.19

ÅCF creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

TPS O35
4.11
ÅCF
4.50

allows per match

TPS O35
1.89
ÅCF
0.75

finishing

TPS O35+0.00on par
ÅCF+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPS O35 ↓

ÅCF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

TPS O35 or draw
47%
TPS O35 or ÅCF
83%
Draw or ÅCF
70%

Winning margin

TPS O35 wins by 2+
16%
ÅCF wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

TPS O35 1+ goals
91%
TPS O35 2+ goals
69%
TPS O35 3+ goals
43%
ÅCF 1+ goals
96%
ÅCF 2+ goals
82%
ÅCF 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

TPS O35 (draw refunded)
36%
ÅCF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPS O35 at home — creates 4.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

ÅCF away — creates 4.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPS O35 attack 4.11 + ÅCF defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.43

ÅCF attack 4.50 + TPS O35 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

TPS O35 scores more
30%
level
17%
ÅCF scores more
53%

ÅCF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ÅCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TPS O35 vs ÅCF

TPS O35 beat ÅCF 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 8, 2022.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.