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TP Mazembe vs Tshinkunku — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
3/9/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

TP Mazembe73%
×Draw18%
Tshinkunku9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
2.09
Tshinkunku
0.55

TP Mazembe creates 280% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Tshinkunku
0.79

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Tshinkunku
1.67

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Tshinkunku+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Tshinkunku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
91%
TP Mazembe or Tshinkunku
82%
Draw or Tshinkunku
27%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
48%
Tshinkunku wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
88%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
62%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
34%
Tshinkunku 1+ goals
42%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
11%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
90%
Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Tshinkunku away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Tshinkunku defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.09

Tshinkunku attack 0.79 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
73%
level
18%
Tshinkunku scores more
9%

TP Mazembe at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: TP Mazembe 3–0 Tshinkunku

TP Mazembe beat Tshinkunku 3-0 in Ligue 1 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.