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TP Mazembe vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Simba
Simba
11/15/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

TP Mazembe69%
×Draw21%
Simba10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.89
Simba
0.57

TP Mazembe creates 232% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 89 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Simba
0.84

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Simba
1.25

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
90%
TP Mazembe or Simba
79%
Draw or Simba
31%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
42%
Simba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
85%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
56%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
29%
Simba 1+ goals
43%
Simba 2+ goals
11%
Simba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
87%
Simba (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.89

Simba attack 0.84 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
69%
level
21%
Simba scores more
10%

TP Mazembe at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TP Mazembe vs Simba

TP Mazembe and Simba drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.