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Simba vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
11/11/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Simba21%
×Draw29%
TP Mazembe51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
0.73
TP Mazembe
1.32

TP Mazembe creates 81% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 97 away

creates per match

Simba
0.92
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Simba
1.03
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Simba or draw
49%
Simba or TP Mazembe
71%
Draw or TP Mazembe
79%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
6%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
52%
Simba 2+ goals
17%
Simba 3+ goals
4%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
73%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
38%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
29%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.03 · 92 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 0.92 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Simba defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Simba scores more
21%
level
29%
TP Mazembe scores more
51%

TP Mazembe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Simba 1 – 1 TP Mazembe

Simba and TP Mazembe drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 11, 2025.