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TP Mazembe vs Sanga Balende — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
AWD
3 – 0
Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
11/7/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

TP Mazembe73%
×Draw19%
Sanga Balende8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.96
Sanga Balende
0.47

TP Mazembe creates 317% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 84 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Sanga Balende
0.63

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Sanga Balende
1.40

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Sanga Balende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
92%
TP Mazembe or Sanga Balende
81%
Draw or Sanga Balende
27%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
46%
Sanga Balende wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
86%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
58%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
31%
Sanga Balende 1+ goals
37%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
8%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
90%
Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
73%
level
19%
Sanga Balende scores more
8%

TP Mazembe at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TP Mazembe host Sanga Balende

November 7, 2025: TP Mazembe take on Sanga Balende in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.