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TP Mazembe vs Saint-Luc — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
1/18/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TP Mazembe71%
×Draw20%
Saint-Luc9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.90
Saint-Luc
0.49

TP Mazembe creates 288% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Saint-Luc
0.67

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Saint-Luc
1.27

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Saint-Luc+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Saint-Luc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
91%
TP Mazembe or Saint-Luc
80%
Draw or Saint-Luc
29%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
44%
Saint-Luc wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
85%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
56%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
29%
Saint-Luc 1+ goals
39%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
9%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
89%
Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Saint-Luc away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Saint-Luc defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Saint-Luc attack 0.67 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
71%
level
20%
Saint-Luc scores more
9%

TP Mazembe at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: TP Mazembe 3–0 Saint-Luc

TP Mazembe beat Saint-Luc 3-0 in Ligue 1 on January 18, 2026.