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TP Mazembe vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
CANC
13:30
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
12/30/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

TP Mazembe55%
×Draw25%
Saint Eloi Lupopo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.65
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.90

TP Mazembe creates 83% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 98 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
80%
TP Mazembe or Saint Eloi Lupopo
75%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
45%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
30%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
81%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
49%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
23%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
59%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
23%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
73%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
55%
level
25%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
20%

TP Mazembe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TP Mazembe host Saint Eloi Lupopo

December 30, 2023: TP Mazembe take on Saint Eloi Lupopo in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TP Mazembe host Saint Eloi Lupopo at Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.