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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
5/5/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Group - 3Stade de la Victoire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo33%
×Draw31%
TP Mazembe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.98
TP Mazembe
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 97 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
64%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or TP Mazembe
69%
Draw or TP Mazembe
67%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
12%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
62%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
26%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
8%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
65%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
28%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
48%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.98

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
33%
level
31%
TP Mazembe scores more
36%

TP Mazembe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Eloi Lupopo vs TP Mazembe

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat TP Mazembe 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 5, 2026.

The match was played at Stade de la Victoire in Lubumbashi.