TP Mazembe 5–1 Groupe Bazano: Result & Stats

TP Mazembe

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Groupe Bazano

3/5/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

TP Mazembe71%

×Draw20%

Groupe Bazano9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TP MazembeExpected goals in this matchGroupe Bazano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.51

TP Mazembe

1.90

Groupe Bazano

0.51

TP Mazembe creates 273% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 73 away

2.52

creates per match

0.70

0.31

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

TP Mazembe

2.52

Groupe Bazano

0.70

allows per match

TP Mazembe

0.31

Groupe Bazano

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Groupe Bazano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw

91%

TP Mazembe or Groupe Bazano

80%

Draw or Groupe Bazano

29%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+

44%

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals

85%

TP Mazembe 2+ goals

56%

TP Mazembe 3+ goals

29%

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals

40%

Groupe Bazano 2+ goals

9%

Groupe Bazano 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)

89%

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

TP Mazembe scores more

71%

level

20%

Groupe Bazano scores more

9%

TP Mazembe at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff