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TP Mazembe vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
12/27/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

TP Mazembe68%
×Draw21%
Don Bosco11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.84
Don Bosco
0.58

TP Mazembe creates 217% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 96 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
89%
TP Mazembe or Don Bosco
79%
Draw or Don Bosco
32%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
41%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
84%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
55%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
28%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
44%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
12%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
86%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
68%
level
21%
Don Bosco scores more
11%

TP Mazembe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: TP Mazembe 6–1 Don Bosco

TP Mazembe beat Don Bosco 6-1 in Ligue 1 on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.