Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Don Bosco vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
11/19/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Don Bosco26%
×Draw28%
TP Mazembe45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
0.91
TP Mazembe
1.29

TP Mazembe creates 42% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
55%
Don Bosco or TP Mazembe
72%
Draw or TP Mazembe
74%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
9%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
60%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
23%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
6%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
72%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
37%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
37%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.91

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Don Bosco scores more
26%
level
28%
TP Mazembe scores more
45%

TP Mazembe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Don Bosco 0–3 TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Don Bosco 3-0 in Ligue 1 on November 19, 2025.