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TP-47 vs OPS Oulu — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2026

TP-47
TP-47
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
OPS Oulu
OPS Oulu
5/21/2016Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 4Pohjan stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

TP-4760%
×Draw18%
OPS Oulu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP-47
2.73
OPS Oulu
1.62

TP-47 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 12 away

creates per match

TP-47
2.13
OPS Oulu
1.50

allows per match

TP-47
1.74
OPS Oulu
3.33

finishing

TP-47+0.00on par
OPS Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP-47 ↓

OPS Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

TP-47 or draw
78%
TP-47 or OPS Oulu
82%
Draw or OPS Oulu
40%

Winning margin

TP-47 wins by 2+
40%
OPS Oulu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TP-47 1+ goals
93%
TP-47 2+ goals
75%
TP-47 3+ goals
50%
OPS Oulu 1+ goals
80%
OPS Oulu 2+ goals
48%
OPS Oulu 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TP-47 (draw refunded)
73%
OPS Oulu (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP-47 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.74 · 47 matches

OPS Oulu away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP-47 attack 2.13 + OPS Oulu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.73

OPS Oulu attack 1.50 + TP-47 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TP-47 scores more
60%
level
18%
OPS Oulu scores more
22%

TP-47 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TP-47 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TP-47 3 – 2 OPS Oulu

TP-47 beat OPS Oulu 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 21, 2016.

The match was played at Pohjan stadion in Tornio.