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TP-47 vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

TP-47
TP-47
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
5/17/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 5Pohjan stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

TP-4758%
×Draw19%
Kuopion Elo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP-47
2.44
Kuopion Elo
1.50

TP-47 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 22 away

creates per match

TP-47
2.11
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

TP-47
1.74
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

TP-47+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP-47 ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

TP-47 or draw
77%
TP-47 or Kuopion Elo
81%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
42%

Winning margin

TP-47 wins by 2+
37%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TP-47 1+ goals
91%
TP-47 2+ goals
70%
TP-47 3+ goals
43%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
78%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
44%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

TP-47 (draw refunded)
72%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP-47 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP-47 attack 2.11 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.44

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + TP-47 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

TP-47 scores more
58%
level
19%
Kuopion Elo scores more
23%

TP-47 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "TP-47 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: TP-47 3–3 Kuopion Elo

TP-47 and Kuopion Elo drew 3-3 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Pohjan stadion in Tornio.