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TP-47 vs GBK — League #1052 2026

TP-47
TP-47
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
GBK
GBK
9/13/2025League #1052League #1052 · Promotion Round - 4Pohjan stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TP-4728%
×Draw18%
GBK54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP-47
2.17
GBK
3.00

GBK creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

TP-47
3.00
GBK
3.00

allows per match

TP-47
3.00
GBK
1.33

finishing

TP-47+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP-47 ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

TP-47 or draw
46%
TP-47 or GBK
82%
Draw or GBK
72%

Winning margin

TP-47 wins by 2+
15%
GBK wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

TP-47 1+ goals
89%
TP-47 2+ goals
64%
TP-47 3+ goals
36%
GBK 1+ goals
95%
GBK 2+ goals
79%
GBK 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

TP-47 (draw refunded)
34%
GBK (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP-47 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

GBK away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP-47 attack 3.00 + GBK defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

GBK attack 3.00 + TP-47 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TP-47 scores more
28%
level
18%
GBK scores more
54%

GBK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "GBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TP-47 2 – 2 GBK

TP-47 and GBK drew 2-2 in League #1052 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Pohjan stadion in Tornio.