Township Rollers 1–4 Galaxy: Result & Stats

Township Rollers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Galaxy

5/23/2026

League #412 · Round 30Botswana National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Township Rollers12%

×Draw23%

Galaxy65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Township RollersExpected goals in this matchGalaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

1.71

Township Rollers

0.58

Galaxy

1.71

Galaxy creates 195% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

1.67

1.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Township Rollers

0.50

Galaxy

1.67

allows per match

Township Rollers

1.75

Galaxy

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Township Rollers+0.00on par

Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Township Rollers ↓

Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–117%

0–215%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Township Rollers or draw

35%

Township Rollers or Galaxy

77%

Draw or Galaxy

88%

Winning margin

Township Rollers wins by 2+

3%

Galaxy wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Township Rollers 1+ goals

44%

Township Rollers 2+ goals

12%

Township Rollers 3+ goals

2%

Galaxy 1+ goals

82%

Galaxy 2+ goals

51%

Galaxy 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Township Rollers (draw refunded)

16%

Galaxy (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Township Rollers at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Galaxy away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Township Rollers attack 0.50 + Galaxy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Galaxy attack 1.67 + Township Rollers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Township Rollers scores more

12%

level

23%

Galaxy scores more

65%

Galaxy at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff