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ToVe vs Haka Juniorit — Suomen Cup 2018

ToVe
ToVe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 1 – 3
Haka Juniorit
Haka Juniorit
4/24/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundPorin Urheilukeskus tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ToVe11%
×Draw13%
Haka Juniorit76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToVe
1.18
Haka Juniorit
3.21

Haka Juniorit creates 172% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

ToVe
1.50
Haka Juniorit
4.43

allows per match

ToVe
2.00
Haka Juniorit
0.86

finishing

ToVe+0.00on par
Haka Juniorit+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToVe ↓

Haka Juniorit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

ToVe or draw
24%
ToVe or Haka Juniorit
87%
Draw or Haka Juniorit
89%

Winning margin

ToVe wins by 2+
4%
Haka Juniorit wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

ToVe 1+ goals
69%
ToVe 2+ goals
33%
ToVe 3+ goals
12%
Haka Juniorit 1+ goals
96%
Haka Juniorit 2+ goals
82%
Haka Juniorit 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

ToVe (draw refunded)
12%
Haka Juniorit (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToVe at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Haka Juniorit away — creates 4.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToVe attack 1.50 + Haka Juniorit defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Haka Juniorit attack 4.43 + ToVe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

ToVe scores more
11%
level
13%
Haka Juniorit scores more
76%

Haka Juniorit at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Haka Juniorit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: ToVe 0–1 Haka Juniorit

Haka Juniorit beat ToVe 1-0 in Suomen Cup on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Porin Urheilukeskus tn in Pori.