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ToVe vs Åland — Suomen Cup 2018

ToVe
ToVe
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Åland
Åland
4/9/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundÄijänsuon Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ToVe15%
×Draw16%
Åland68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToVe
1.25
Åland
2.75

Åland creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

ToVe
1.50
Åland
3.50

allows per match

ToVe
2.00
Åland
1.00

finishing

ToVe+0.00on par
Åland+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToVe ↓

Åland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

ToVe or draw
32%
ToVe or Åland
84%
Draw or Åland
85%

Winning margin

ToVe wins by 2+
6%
Åland wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

ToVe 1+ goals
71%
ToVe 2+ goals
36%
ToVe 3+ goals
13%
Åland 1+ goals
93%
Åland 2+ goals
75%
Åland 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

ToVe (draw refunded)
18%
Åland (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToVe at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Åland away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToVe attack 1.50 + Åland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Åland attack 3.50 + ToVe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

ToVe scores more
15%
level
16%
Åland scores more
68%

Åland at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Åland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ToVe vs Åland

Åland beat ToVe 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Äijänsuon Stadion in Rauma.