Tovarníky 0–3 Zlaté Moravce: Result & Stats

Tovarníky

FT

0 – 3

Zlaté Moravce

K. Yilmaz 22'

V. Candrak 14' (OG)

T. Dubek 11' (pen)

8/24/2021

League #680 · 2nd RoundŠtadion OFK Tovarníky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tovarníky5%

×Draw11%

Zlaté Moravce84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TovarníkyExpected goals in this matchZlaté Moravce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

3.02

Tovarníky

0.63

Zlaté Moravce

3.02

Zlaté Moravce creates 379% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

3.25

2.80

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Tovarníky

1.00

Zlaté Moravce

3.25

allows per match

Tovarníky

2.80

Zlaté Moravce

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tovarníky+0.00on par

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tovarníky ↓

Zlaté Moravce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Tovarníky or draw

16%

Tovarníky or Zlaté Moravce

89%

Draw or Zlaté Moravce

95%

Winning margin

Tovarníky wins by 2+

1%

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Tovarníky 1+ goals

47%

Tovarníky 2+ goals

13%

Tovarníky 3+ goals

3%

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

95%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

80%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Tovarníky (draw refunded)

6%

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tovarníky at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tovarníky attack 1.00 + Zlaté Moravce defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Zlaté Moravce attack 3.25 + Tovarníky defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tovarníky scores more

5%

level

11%

Zlaté Moravce scores more

84%

Zlaté Moravce at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Zlaté Moravce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. DubekPenalty

14'

V. CandrakOwn goal

22'

K. Yilmaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff