Tours 1–2 Les Herbiers: Result & Stats

Tours

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Les Herbiers

1/5/2019

Coupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade de la Vallée-du-Cher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tours23%

×Draw21%

Les Herbiers56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToursExpected goals in this matchLes Herbiers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.13

Tours

1.29

Les Herbiers

2.13

Les Herbiers creates 65% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

3.00

1.25

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Tours

1.50

Les Herbiers

3.00

allows per match

Tours

1.25

Les Herbiers

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tours+0.00on par

Les Herbiers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tours ↓

Les Herbiers →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tours or draw

44%

Tours or Les Herbiers

79%

Draw or Les Herbiers

77%

Winning margin

Tours wins by 2+

Les Herbiers wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Tours 1+ goals

72%

Tours 2+ goals

37%

Tours 3+ goals

14%

Les Herbiers 1+ goals

88%

Les Herbiers 2+ goals

63%

Les Herbiers 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Tours (draw refunded)

29%

Les Herbiers (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tours at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Les Herbiers away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tours attack 1.50 + Les Herbiers defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Les Herbiers attack 3.00 + Tours defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tours scores more

23%

level

21%

Les Herbiers scores more

56%

Les Herbiers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Les Herbiers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff