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Touring vs San Viator — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Touring
Touring
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Viator
San Viator
12/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Campo de Fútbol Fandería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Touring67%
×Draw19%
San Viator14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Touring
2.29
San Viator
0.95

Touring creates 141% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Touring
1.18
San Viator
0.65

allows per match

Touring
1.25
San Viator
3.41

finishing

Touring+0.00on par
San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Touring ↓

San Viator →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Touring or draw
86%
Touring or San Viator
81%
Draw or San Viator
33%

Winning margin

Touring wins by 2+
44%
San Viator wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Touring 1+ goals
90%
Touring 2+ goals
66%
Touring 3+ goals
40%
San Viator 1+ goals
61%
San Viator 2+ goals
25%
San Viator 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Touring (draw refunded)
82%
San Viator (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Touring at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Touring attack 1.18 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.29

San Viator attack 0.65 + Touring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Touring scores more
67%
level
19%
San Viator scores more
14%

Touring at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Touring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Touring 1–1 San Viator

Touring and San Viator drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Fandería in Errenteria.