Touring 0–2 Padura: Result & Stats

Touring

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Padura

3/29/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Campo de Fútbol Fandería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Touring46%

×Draw26%

Padura28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TouringExpected goals in this matchPadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.07

Touring

1.44

Padura

1.07

Touring creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.25

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Touring

1.18

Padura

0.90

allows per match

Touring

1.25

Padura

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Touring+0.00on par

Padura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Touring ↓

Padura →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Touring or draw

72%

Touring or Padura

74%

Draw or Padura

54%

Winning margin

Touring wins by 2+

22%

Padura wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Touring 1+ goals

76%

Touring 2+ goals

42%

Touring 3+ goals

18%

Padura 1+ goals

66%

Padura 2+ goals

29%

Padura 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Touring (draw refunded)

62%

Padura (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Touring at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

Padura away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Touring attack 1.18 + Padura defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Padura attack 0.90 + Touring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Touring scores more

46%

level

26%

Padura scores more

28%

Touring at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Touring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff