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Touring vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Touring
Touring
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
12/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Campo de Fútbol Fandería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Touring45%
×Draw27%
Aurrerá Ondarroa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Touring
1.42
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.08

Touring creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

creates per match

Touring
1.18
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Touring
1.25
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Touring+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Touring ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Touring or draw
71%
Touring or Aurrerá Ondarroa
73%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
55%

Winning margin

Touring wins by 2+
22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Touring 1+ goals
76%
Touring 2+ goals
41%
Touring 3+ goals
17%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
66%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
29%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Touring (draw refunded)
61%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Touring at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Touring attack 1.18 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Touring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Touring scores more
45%
level
27%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
29%

Touring at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Touring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Touring vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Touring and Aurrerá Ondarroa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Fandería in Errenteria.