Toulouse 1–1 Auxerre: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Toulouse

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Auxerre

Z. Aboukhlal 44'

R. Raveloson 24'

5/27/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 37Stadium de Toulouse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Toulouse53%

×Draw25%

Auxerre22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToulouseExpected goals in this matchAuxerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.94

Toulouse

1.60

Auxerre

0.94

Toulouse creates 70% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

1.47

creates per match

0.78

1.10

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Toulouse

1.47

Auxerre

0.78

allows per match

Toulouse

1.10

Auxerre

1.74

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Toulouse-0.08on par

Auxerre+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Auxerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

78%

Toulouse or Auxerre

75%

Draw or Auxerre

47%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+

28%

Auxerre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals

80%

Toulouse 2+ goals

47%

Toulouse 3+ goals

22%

Auxerre 1+ goals

61%

Auxerre 2+ goals

24%

Auxerre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)

70%

Auxerre (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 28 matches

Auxerre away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.74 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 1.47 + Auxerre defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Auxerre attack 0.78 + Toulouse defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Toulouse scores more

53%

level

25%

Auxerre scores more

22%

Toulouse at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Z. Aboukhlal

Toulouse · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

Jubal

18'

Han-Noah Massengo

24'

R. Raveloson

44'

Z. Aboukhlal↳ Rafael Ratão

62'

G. Perrin← L. Sinayoko

65'

F. Chaïbi← B. Dejaegere

71'

Stijn Spierings

74'

V. Sierro← S. Spierings

81'

S. Dembélé← Nuno da Costa

81'

M. Abline← G. Hein

83'

A. Onaiwu← Rafael Ratão

84'

Matthis Abline

90+1'

M. Autret← A. Zedadka

90+1'

H. Sakhi← B. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ToulouseAuxerre

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots16

0.87Expected Goals (xG)0.94

6Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target2

5Off Target8

2Blocked6

7Inside Box3

3Outside Box13

Passing

61%Possession39%

488Total Passes314

412Accurate Passes248

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1