Toulouse 2–1 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Toulouse

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arles

E. Didot 62'

D. Braaten 36'

F. Dja Djedjé 64'

8/21/2010

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stadium Municipal (Toulouse)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Toulouse59%

×Draw24%

Arles17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToulouseExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.78

Toulouse

1.67

Arles

0.78

Toulouse creates 114% more chances

Season form · 232 home / 19 away

1.28

creates per match

0.37

1.20

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Toulouse

1.28

Arles

0.37

allows per match

Toulouse

1.20

Arles

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toulouse+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

83%

Toulouse or Arles

76%

Draw or Arles

41%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+

32%

Arles wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals

81%

Toulouse 2+ goals

50%

Toulouse 3+ goals

23%

Arles 1+ goals

54%

Arles 2+ goals

18%

Arles 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)

77%

Arles (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 232 matches

Arles away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 1.28 + Arles defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Arles attack 0.37 + Toulouse defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Toulouse scores more

59%

level

24%

Arles scores more

17%

Toulouse at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

D. Braaten

45'

B. Soro← A. Basinas

51'

D. N'Diaye← Y. Kermorgant

62'

E. Didot↳ D. Braaten

64'

F. Dja Djedjé↳ E. Erbate

80'

K. Ghilas← F. Dja Djedjé

84'

F. Mansaré← A. Devaux

Toulouse

Arles

1

Planté

2

Mejía

4

A

Erbate

23

Fanchone

28

Meriem

26

▼

Basinas

8

Piocelle

17

Ayasse

29

⚽

▼

Djedjé

9

Charistea

18

▼

1

3

4

21

12

8

⚽

5

27

29

6

▼

Devaux

25

⚽A

Braaten

84'▲F. Mansaré←▼A. Devaux

Toulouse substitutes

7Mansaré16Vidal2Fofana13Nounkeu34Regattin35Soukouna26Yedder

45'▲B. Soro←▼A. Basinas

51'▲D. N'Diaye←▼Y. Kermorgant

80'▲K. Ghilas←▼F. Dja Djedjé

Arles substitutes

5Soro27N'Diaye10Ghilas16Merville3Elie6Aït-Ben-Idir14Najih