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Toulde vs Inter Nouakchott — Premier League 2020

Toulde
Toulde
FT
0 – 1
Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
10/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Stade de Kaédi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Toulde35%
×Draw29%
Inter Nouakchott36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toulde
1.08
Inter Nouakchott
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Toulde
0.69
Inter Nouakchott
0.77

allows per match

Toulde
1.44
Inter Nouakchott
1.48

finishing

Toulde+0.00on par
Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulde ↓

Inter Nouakchott →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Toulde or draw
64%
Toulde or Inter Nouakchott
71%
Draw or Inter Nouakchott
65%

Winning margin

Toulde wins by 2+
14%
Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Toulde 1+ goals
66%
Toulde 2+ goals
29%
Toulde 3+ goals
10%
Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
67%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
30%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Toulde (draw refunded)
49%
Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulde at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Inter Nouakchott away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulde attack 0.69 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.08

Inter Nouakchott attack 0.77 + Toulde defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Toulde scores more
35%
level
29%
Inter Nouakchott scores more
36%

Inter Nouakchott at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Inter Nouakchott will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toulde vs Inter Nouakchott

Inter Nouakchott beat Toulde 1-0 in Premier League on October 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Kaédi in Kaédi.