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ToU vs PK-37 — Suomen Cup 2018

ToU
ToU
FT
3 – 5
PK-37
PK-37
3/15/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundLippumäen kuplahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ToU5%
×Draw7%
PK-3789%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToU
1.33
PK-37
5.22

PK-37 creates 292% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

ToU
1.33
PK-37
5.44

allows per match

ToU
5.00
PK-37
1.33

finishing

ToU+0.00on par
PK-37+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToU ↓

PK-37 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 55% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

ToU or draw
11%
ToU or PK-37
93%
Draw or PK-37
95%

Winning margin

ToU wins by 2+
2%
PK-37 wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

ToU 1+ goals
74%
ToU 2+ goals
38%
ToU 3+ goals
15%
PK-37 1+ goals
99%
PK-37 2+ goals
95%
PK-37 3+ goals
85%

Draw no bet

ToU (draw refunded)
5%
PK-37 (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToU at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

PK-37 away — creates 5.44, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToU attack 1.33 + PK-37 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

PK-37 attack 5.44 + ToU defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 5.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

ToU scores more
5%
level
7%
PK-37 scores more
89%

PK-37 at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "PK-37 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ToU 3 – 5 PK-37

PK-37 beat ToU 5-3 in Suomen Cup on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Lippumäen kuplahalli in Kuopio.