Tottenham 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

Son Heung-Min 42'

8/29/2021

Premier League · Round 3Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Tottenham56%

×Draw23%

Watford21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.00

Tottenham

1.82

Watford

1.00

Tottenham creates 82% more chances

Season form · 204 home / 114 away

1.87

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Tottenham

1.87

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Tottenham

1.05

Watford

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

79%

Tottenham or Watford

77%

Draw or Watford

44%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

32%

Watford wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

84%

Tottenham 2+ goals

54%

Tottenham 3+ goals

27%

Watford 1+ goals

63%

Watford 2+ goals

26%

Watford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

73%

Watford (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.05 · 204 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.87 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Watford attack 0.96 + Tottenham defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tottenham scores more

56%

level

23%

Watford scores more

21%

Tottenham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

P. Højbjerg

Tottenham · M

8.3

Match Events

28'

Oghenekaro Etebo

42'

Son Heung-Min

45'

Harry Kane

51'

J. Ngakia← C. Cathcart

54'

Moussa Sissoko

61'

Dele Alli

65'

J. Hernández← J. King

68'

Lucas Moura← S. Bergwijn

71'

T. Cleverley← M. Sissoko

85'

Oliver Skipp

88'

Bryan Gil← Son Heung-Min

90+4'

Emmanuel Dennis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWatford

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots9

10Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots9

8On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

500Total Passes364

439Accurate Passes297

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1