Tottenham 2–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

D. Kulusevski 0 90+10'

Richarlison 90+8'

G. Hamer 73'

9/16/2023

Premier League · Round 5Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tottenham60%

×Draw23%

Sheffield Utd17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.82

Tottenham

1.78

Sheffield Utd

0.82

Tottenham creates 117% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 43 away

1.89

creates per match

0.56

1.07

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tottenham

1.89

Sheffield Utd

0.56

allows per match

Tottenham

1.07

Sheffield Utd

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

83%

Tottenham or Sheffield Utd

77%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

40%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

34%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

83%

Tottenham 2+ goals

53%

Tottenham 3+ goals

26%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

56%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

20%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

78%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 198 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sheffield Utd attack 0.56 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tottenham scores more

60%

level

23%

Sheffield Utd scores more

17%

Tottenham at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

W. Foderingham

Sheffield Utd · G

8.9

Match Events

29'

41'

45'

48'

56'

63'

66'

69'

70'

O. Norwood← J. McAtee

73'

G. Hamer↳ J. Robinson

80'

B. Johnson← Son Heung-Min

80'

Richarlison← P. Sarr

80'

I. Perišić← M. Solomon

81'

86'

86'

90+16'

90+13'

90+14'

90+2'

90+14'

90+4'

Emerson Royal← Pedro Porro

90+5'

P. Højbjerg← M. van de Ven

90+8'

Richarlison↳ I. Perišić

90+10'

D. Kulusevski 0↳ Richarlison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamSheffield

Overview

70%Possession30%

28Total Shots7

2.12Expected Goals (xG)0.66

15Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

28Total Shots7

10On Target5

9Off Target1

9Blocked1

19Inside Box6

9Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

620Total Passes269

545Accurate Passes185

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls14

6Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3