Tottenham 3–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nottingham Forest

Pedro Porro 58'

M. van de Ven 52'

Murillo 15' (OG)

C. Wood 27'

4/7/2024

Premier League · Round 32Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Tottenham45%

×Draw26%

Nottingham Forest29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Tottenham

1.50

Nottingham Forest

1.16

Tottenham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.24

creates per match

0.95

1.36

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Tottenham

1.24

Nottingham Forest

0.95

allows per match

Tottenham

1.36

Nottingham Forest

1.77

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.06on par

Nottingham Forest+0.47scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

71%

Tottenham or Nottingham Forest

74%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

55%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

22%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

78%

Tottenham 2+ goals

44%

Tottenham 3+ goals

19%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

69%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

32%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

61%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 23 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.24 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nottingham Forest attack 0.95 + Tottenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham scores more

45%

level

26%

Nottingham Forest scores more

29%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pedro Porro

Tottenham · D

8.0

Match Events

14'

Ryan Yates

15'

MurilloOwn goal

25'

Timo Werner

27'

C. Wood↳ A. Elanga

46'

R. Bentancur← P. Sarr

46'

P. Højbjerg← Y. Bissouma

52'

M. van de Ven↳ Son Heung-Min

56'

Morgan Gibbs-White

58'

Pedro Porro↳ R. Bentancur

60'

Rodrigo Bentancur

68'

N. Domínguez← M. Gibbs-White

68'

D. Origi← C. Wood

71'

Neco Williams

76'

D. Kulusevski← J. Maddison

76'

G. Lo Celso← T. Werner

78'

Danilo

81'

I. Sangaré← R. Yates

81'

G. Reyna← Danilo

87'

G. Montiel← N. Williams

89'

D. Scarlett← B. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamNottingham

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots13

1.55Expected Goals (xG)1.55

12Corners2

11Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots13

7On Target6

5Off Target7

5Blocked0

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

668Total Passes379

585Accurate Passes315

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2