Tottenham 1–2 Monaco: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Monaco

9/14/2016

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tottenham66%

×Draw19%

Monaco15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchMonaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.00

Tottenham

2.31

Monaco

1.00

Tottenham creates 131% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.21

creates per match

1.40

0.60

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Tottenham

2.21

Monaco

1.40

allows per match

Tottenham

0.60

Monaco

2.41

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.39scores more

Monaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Monaco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

85%

Tottenham or Monaco

81%

Draw or Monaco

34%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

43%

Monaco wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

90%

Tottenham 2+ goals

67%

Tottenham 3+ goals

40%

Monaco 1+ goals

63%

Monaco 2+ goals

26%

Monaco 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

82%

Monaco (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Monaco away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.41 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 2.21 + Monaco defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.31

Monaco attack 1.40 + Tottenham defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tottenham scores more

66%

level

19%

Monaco scores more

15%

Tottenham at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff