Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace

H. Kane 45+1'

5/6/2023

Premier League · Round 35Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Tottenham38%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Tottenham

1.32

Crystal Palace

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

1.32

creates per match

1.25

1.28

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tottenham

1.32

Crystal Palace

1.25

allows per match

Tottenham

1.28

Crystal Palace

1.32

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.10scores more

Crystal Palace-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

64%

Tottenham or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

62%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

17%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

73%

Tottenham 2+ goals

38%

Tottenham 3+ goals

15%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

72%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

36%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

52%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 33 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.32 + Crystal Palace defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Crystal Palace attack 1.25 + Tottenham defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tottenham scores more

38%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

36%

Tottenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Romero

Tottenham · D

8.2

Match Events

45+1'

56'

69'

73'

74'

W. Hughes← J. Schlupp

79'

D. Kulusevski← Richarlison

83'

84'

86'

88'

89'

A. Danjuma← Son Heung-Min

90+1'

Fraser Forster

90+2'

Joachim Andersen

90+1'

Wilfried Zaha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamCrystal

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots7

0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.36

8Corners4

15Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

514Total Passes378

432Accurate Passes285

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0