Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

Son Heung-Min 64'

11/5/2017

Premier League · Round 11Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Tottenham40%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Tottenham

1.38

Crystal Palace

1.23

Tottenham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.19

1.26

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Crystal Palace

1.28

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Crystal Palace-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

67%

Tottenham or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

60%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

19%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

75%

Tottenham 2+ goals

40%

Tottenham 3+ goals

16%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

35%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

55%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tottenham scores more

40%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

33%

Tottenham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Vertonghen

Tottenham · D

8.0

Match Events

45'

46'

56'

64'

76'

B. Sako← J. Ward

77'

Llorente← H. Kane

90+2'

B. Davies← D. Rose

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamCrystal

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots11

10Corners9

6Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

583Total Passes268

491Accurate Passes185

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4