Tottenham 2–1 Brighton: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brighton

G. Bale 73'

H. Kane 13' (pen)

T. Lamptey 56'

11/1/2020

Premier League · Round 7Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Tottenham42%

×Draw24%

Brighton34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.40

Tottenham

1.57

Brighton

1.40

Tottenham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

1.47

creates per match

1.50

1.30

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Brighton

1.50

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Brighton

1.67

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Brighton-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

66%

Tottenham or Brighton

76%

Draw or Brighton

58%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

21%

Brighton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham 2+ goals

46%

Tottenham 3+ goals

21%

Brighton 1+ goals

75%

Brighton 2+ goals

41%

Brighton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

55%

Brighton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Brighton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Brighton attack 1.50 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tottenham scores more

42%

level

24%

Brighton scores more

34%

Tottenham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Bale

Tottenham · F

7.6

Match Events

7'

Tanguy Ndombélé

12'

Harry KaneGoal cancelled

13'

H. KanePenalty

23'

Leandro TrossardGoal cancelled

39'

Sergio Reguilón

45'

Dan Burn

56'

T. Lamptey↳ P. Groß

57'

Tariq LampteyGoal cancelled

64'

G. Lo Celso← T. Ndombèlé

66'

Bernardo← S. March

70'

G. Bale← E. Lamela

73'

G. Bale↳ Reguilón

74'

D. Welbeck← L. Trossard

79'

A. Mac Allister← T. Lamptey

85'

B. Davies← Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBrighton

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots6

4Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots6

3On Target2

6Off Target2

0Blocked2

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

387Total Passes503

294Accurate Passes406

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4