Brighton 0–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tottenham

H. Kane 22'

10/8/2022

Premier League · Round 10The American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brighton48%

×Draw25%

Tottenham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.13

Brighton

1.60

Tottenham

1.13

Brighton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

1.57

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Brighton

1.57

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

Tottenham

1.62

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Brighton+0.10scores more

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

73%

Brighton or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

52%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

25%

Tottenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

80%

Brighton 2+ goals

47%

Brighton 3+ goals

22%

Tottenham 1+ goals

68%

Tottenham 2+ goals

31%

Tottenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

64%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.57 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brighton scores more

48%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

27%

Brighton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Mac Allister

Brighton · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Harry Kane

22'

H. Kane↳ Son Heung-Min

31'

Yves Bissouma

49'

Joël Veltman

67'

K. Mitoma← P. Estupiñán

70'

Richarlison← Y. Bissouma

80'

I. Perišić← Son Heung-Min

82'

A. Lallana← P. Groß

88'

T. Lamptey← J. Veltman

89'

B. Gilmour← M. Caicedo

90'

O. Skipp← H. Kane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonTottenham

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots8

6Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots8

4On Target3

5Off Target4

5Blocked1

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

694Total Passes489

610Accurate Passes398

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3