Tottenham 3–2 Brentford: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

Tottenham

1.50

Brentford

1.24

Tottenham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 23 away

1.38

creates per match

1.19

1.29

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Tottenham

1.38

Brentford

1.19

allows per match

Tottenham

1.29

Brentford

1.63

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.08on par

Brentford+0.03on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

69%

Tottenham or Brentford

75%

Draw or Brentford

57%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

21%

Brentford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

78%

Tottenham 2+ goals

44%

Tottenham 3+ goals

19%

Brentford 1+ goals

71%

Brentford 2+ goals

35%

Brentford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

58%

Brentford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.63 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.38 + Brentford defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Brentford attack 1.19 + Tottenham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tottenham scores more

43%

level

25%

Brentford scores more

31%

Tottenham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maddison

Tottenham · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

17'

43'

43'

46'

P. Højbjerg← O. Skipp

46'

B. Johnson← R. Bentancur

48'

D. Udogie

49'

B. Johnson↳ T. Werner

56'

Richarlison

57'

Y. Yarmoliuk← M. Jensen

67'

I. Toney

78'

J. Dasilva← M. Roerslev

78'

K. Ajer← N. Collins

88'

R. Drăgușin← J. Maddison

88'

S. Baptiste← V. Janelt

88'

M. Damsgaard← K. Lewis-Potter

90+6'

Jamie Donley

90'

Yehor Yarmoliuk

90+2'

J. Donley← T. Werner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBrentford

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots9

3.01Expected Goals (xG)1.59

5Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target5

7Off Target3

7Blocked1

14Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

618Total Passes276

531Accurate Passes183

86%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Brentford

Tottenham beat Brentford 3-2 in Premier League on January 31, 2024.

Goals: N. Maupay (15'), D. Udogie (48'), B. Johnson (49'), Richarlison (56'), I. Toney (67').

Tottenham controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Brentford