Tottenham 1–3 Brentford: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Brentford

H. Kane 8'

Y. Wissa 88'

B. Mbeumo 62', 50'

5/20/2023

Premier League · Round 37Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Tottenham42%

×Draw26%

Brentford32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.23

Tottenham

1.45

Brentford

1.23

Tottenham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 22 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.28

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Tottenham

1.33

Brentford

1.18

allows per match

Tottenham

1.28

Brentford

1.57

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.08on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

68%

Tottenham or Brentford

74%

Draw or Brentford

58%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

20%

Brentford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

77%

Tottenham 2+ goals

42%

Tottenham 3+ goals

18%

Brentford 1+ goals

71%

Brentford 2+ goals

35%

Brentford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

57%

Brentford (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.28 · 34 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.33 + Brentford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Brentford attack 1.18 + Tottenham defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tottenham scores more

42%

level

26%

Brentford scores more

32%

Tottenham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Mbeumo

Brentford · F

9.3

Match Events

8'

H. Kane↳ D. Kulusevski

45'

Yves Bissouma

46'

M. Damsgaard← F. Onyeka

50'

B. Mbeumo↳ Y. Wissa

62'

B. Mbeumo↳ A. Hickey

66'

Lucas Moura← A. Danjuma

68'

Rico Henry

72'

S. Baptiste← M. Jensen

75'

Richarlison← D. Kulusevski

75'

Pedro Porro← Emerson

78'

M. Jørgensen← K. Schade

85'

I. Perišić← B. Davies

88'

Y. Wissa↳ B. Mbeumo

89'

M. Rasmussen← A. Hickey

89'

J. Dasilva← Y. Wissa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBrentford

Overview

62%Possession38%

22Total Shots11

1.83Expected Goals (xG)1.29

8Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots11

8On Target4

6Off Target6

8Blocked1

15Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

581Total Passes364

501Accurate Passes283

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Premier League: Tottenham 1–3 Brentford

Brentford beat Tottenham 3-1 in Premier League on May 20, 2023.

Goals: H. Kane (8'), B. Mbeumo (50', 62'), Y. Wissa (88').

Tottenham controlled possession (62%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Tottenham 1–3 Brentford