Tottenham Hotspur W 4–1 Reading W: Result & Stats

Tottenham Hotspur W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Reading W

5/20/2023

FA WSL · Round 21Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W45%

×Draw24%

Reading W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tottenham Hotspur WExpected goals in this matchReading W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.29

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.62

Reading W

1.29

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 49 away

1.14

creates per match

1.16

1.43

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.14

Reading W

1.16

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.43

Reading W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Reading W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw

69%

Tottenham Hotspur W or Reading W

76%

Draw or Reading W

55%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+

23%

Reading W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals

80%

Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals

48%

Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals

22%

Reading W 1+ goals

72%

Reading W 2+ goals

37%

Reading W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)

60%

Reading W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Reading W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.10 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Reading W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.62

Reading W attack 1.16 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more

45%

level

24%

Reading W scores more

31%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff