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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Manchester United W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester United W
Manchester United W
12/10/2023FA WSLFA WSL · Round 9Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W26%
×Draw25%
Manchester United W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.07
Manchester United W
1.55

Manchester United W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
Manchester United W
1.68

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
Manchester United W
1.01

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
52%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Manchester United W
75%
Draw or Manchester United W
74%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
10%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
66%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
29%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
9%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
79%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
46%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
35%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Manchester United W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Manchester United W attack 1.68 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
26%
level
25%
Manchester United W scores more
48%

Manchester United W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tottenham Hotspur W vs Manchester United W

Manchester United W beat Tottenham Hotspur W 4-0 in FA WSL on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.