Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manchester United W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Manchester United W
Manchester United Wadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
5/12/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Manchester United W75%
×Draw14%
Tottenham Hotspur W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United W
3.19
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.22

Manchester United W creates 161% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Manchester United W
3.55
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.17

allows per match

Manchester United W
1.27
Tottenham Hotspur W
2.83

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par
Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw
89%
Manchester United W or Tottenham Hotspur W
86%
Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W
25%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+
56%
Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals
96%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
82%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
60%
Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
70%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
34%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)
87%
Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 3.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 3.55 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.19

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.17 + Manchester United W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Manchester United W scores more
75%
level
14%
Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
11%

Manchester United W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester United W vs Tottenham Hotspur W

Manchester United W beat Tottenham Hotspur W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.