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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Manchester City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur Wadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester City W
Manchester City W
3/10/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · Quarter-finalsGaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W35%
×Draw20%
Manchester City W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.98
Manchester City W
2.25

Manchester City W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
3.40
Manchester City W
4.09

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
0.40
Manchester City W
0.55

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Manchester City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
55%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Manchester City W
80%
Draw or Manchester City W
65%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
18%
Manchester City W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
86%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
59%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
31%
Manchester City W 1+ goals
89%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
65%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
44%
Manchester City W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 4.09, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 3.40 + Manchester City W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.98

Manchester City W attack 4.09 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
35%
level
20%
Manchester City W scores more
45%

Manchester City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Tottenham Hotspur W 1–1 Manchester City W

Tottenham Hotspur W and Manchester City W drew 1-1 in FA Women's Cup on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.