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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Liverpool W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Liverpool W
Liverpool W
11/12/2023FA WSLFA WSL · Round 6Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W42%
×Draw26%
Liverpool W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.44
Liverpool W
1.24

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
Liverpool W
1.05

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
Liverpool W
1.73

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Liverpool W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Liverpool W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
68%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Liverpool W
74%
Draw or Liverpool W
58%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
20%
Liverpool W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
76%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
42%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
18%
Liverpool W 1+ goals
71%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
35%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
56%
Liverpool W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Liverpool W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Liverpool W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Liverpool W attack 1.05 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
42%
level
26%
Liverpool W scores more
32%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Tottenham Hotspur W 1–1 Liverpool W

Tottenham Hotspur W and Liverpool W drew 1-1 in FA WSL on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.