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Liverpool W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA WSL 2018

Liverpool W
Liverpool W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
1/25/2026FA WSLFA WSL · Round 13St Helens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Liverpool W45%
×Draw24%
Tottenham Hotspur W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool W
1.68
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.36

Liverpool W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 74 away

creates per match

Liverpool W
1.33
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.32

allows per match

Liverpool W
1.41
Tottenham Hotspur W
2.03

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par
Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw
69%
Liverpool W or Tottenham Hotspur W
76%
Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W
55%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+
23%
Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals
81%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
50%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
24%
Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
74%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
39%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)
59%
Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.03 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.33 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.32 + Liverpool W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Liverpool W scores more
45%
level
24%
Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
31%

Liverpool W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Liverpool W 2–0 Tottenham Hotspur W

Liverpool W beat Tottenham Hotspur W 2-0 in FA WSL on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at St Helens Stadium in St Helens.