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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Crystal Palace W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
9/22/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 1Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W58%
×Draw21%
Crystal Palace W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
2.11
Crystal Palace W
1.21

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
Crystal Palace W
1.00

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
Crystal Palace W
3.09

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Crystal Palace W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
79%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Crystal Palace W
79%
Draw or Crystal Palace W
42%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
35%
Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
88%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
62%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
35%
Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
70%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
34%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
73%
Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Crystal Palace W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.11

Crystal Palace W attack 1.00 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
58%
level
21%
Crystal Palace W scores more
21%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tottenham Hotspur W vs Crystal Palace W

Tottenham Hotspur W beat Crystal Palace W 4-0 in FA WSL on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.