Tottenham Hotspur W 1–0 Charlton Athletic W

Tottenham Hotspur W

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton Athletic W

2/10/2024

FA Women's Cup · 5th RoundGaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W53%

×Draw21%

Charlton Athletic W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tottenham Hotspur WExpected goals in this matchCharlton Athletic W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.40

Tottenham Hotspur W

2.10

Charlton Athletic W

1.40

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

3.40

creates per match

2.40

0.40

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W

3.40

Charlton Athletic W

2.40

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W

0.40

Charlton Athletic W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Charlton Athletic W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw

75%

Tottenham Hotspur W or Charlton Athletic W

79%

Draw or Charlton Athletic W

47%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+

32%

Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals

88%

Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals

62%

Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals

35%

Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals

75%

Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals

41%

Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)

68%

Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Charlton Athletic W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 3.40 + Charlton Athletic W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.40 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more

53%

level

21%

Charlton Athletic W scores more

25%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff