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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Bristol City W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
CANC
00:00
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
4/19/2020FA WSLFA WSL · Round 13The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W58%
×Draw21%
Bristol City W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
2.12
Bristol City W
1.23

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 40 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
Bristol City W
1.02

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
Bristol City W
3.10

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
78%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Bristol City W
79%
Draw or Bristol City W
42%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
35%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
88%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
62%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
35%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
35%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
73%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 1.02, concedes 3.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Bristol City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.12

Bristol City W attack 1.02 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
58%
level
21%
Bristol City W scores more
22%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tottenham Hotspur W face Bristol City W (FA WSL)

FA WSL returns with Tottenham Hotspur W hosting Bristol City W. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tottenham Hotspur W host Bristol City W at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.